Recently, the 2019 New Deal, which has made all PV people worry about it, has new news. According to the news, the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission once again sought the opinions of enterprises on the photovoltaic policy of 2019 on March 19. It is understood that the electricity price plan discussed in this meeting has a certain change with the draft for comments on February 18. Moreover, due to the large number of opinions of enterprises, it is difficult to unify, and the introduction of the New Deal may be later than expected.
Dragging or dragging or causing industry confusion
In the past years, the new subsidy policy was generally released at the end of the old year. The 2019 New Deal missed the end of 2018, missed the January of 2019, continued to miss the Spring Festival, and now even began to miss the first quarter. Taking into account the particularity and importance of the New Deal in 2019, all PV people are waiting for it, but the New Deal has been delayed, and has even hindered the normal development of the industry.
From the time point of view, from the official release of the New Deal to the completion of the related projects, it is necessary to go through a series of processes such as "determination of bidding rules, bid opening, project reporting, queuing, EPC bidding, and construction"， so the cumbersome process obviously needs a long time. It is conservatively estimated that it will take half a year from the implementation of the policy to the construction of the project. Among them is the determination of the bidding rules, the reporting of provincial projects, and the queuing to the final determination of the project. This process takes 2 months.
Time has come to the end of March. At present, the new policy that was originally hoped to be released at the end of this month has to be postponed. When it is released, there is still no more accurate information. After the policy is released, there is still a lot to do. If the New Deal is not intensified in 2019, then this year's PV market will be in chaos because of policy drag.
The author believes that in order to avoid confusion in the industry's long wait for policy, the 2019 subsidy policy should be released before the end of April. From the time of policy release, the domestic PV market in the first half of 2019 may be cold, and this year's focus will be mainly concentrated in the second half.
Why is the subsidy policy difficult to produce?
This year's subsidy policy will not only solve the subsidy problem of new projects, but also solve the problem of subsidy arrears in the stock power station. This is the main reason for the policy's difficult birth.
The news shows that the focus of the discussion on March 19th is still on the issue of subsidies. The form of subsidies may change compared to the exposure draft on February 18th.
The draft of the Exposure on February 18th indicated that the new project will be subsidized by limiting the amount of funds of 3 billion yuan, and then determining the project through bidding. The subsidy of 3 billion yuan will be used up and running.
From the discussion and analysis of previous industry experts, the way to limit subsidy funds is a good way to get more than one step, which is very suitable for the current PV market. The author believes that the current method of limiting subsidy funds should be adhered to, but a fair and efficient bidding rule should be formulated to allow these most valuable subsidies and subsidies to be obtained. On the other hand, the total amount of subsidy funds needs to be scientifically calculated according to the development of the current PV market, so as to ensure the positive impact of subsidies on the industry.
In addition to the subsidy methods and standards for new projects, this PV policy also requires a solution to the subsidy arrears of the stock power station. In terms of reason, the subsidy arrears of the stock power station is a priority problem. However, since the amount of arrears is too large to be resolved in a short period of time, the industry can only hope that the relevant departments will give a feasible solution, at least to gradually solve the problem of subsidies for the reserve of power stations.
It is not so simple to solve the subsidy problem of new projects and the subsidy arrears of the stock power station at the same time. The number of times of the symposium and the number of policy requests for comments can be seen. At the March 19 meeting, there were a lot of opinions from the company. The authors speculated that they might mainly focus on the amount of total subsidy funds and the subsidy arrears of the stock power stations.
Is there any hope in 2019?
In the first quarter of 2017, the photovoltaic industry has begun to rush to install; in the first quarter of 2018, the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic projects reached a new high; in the first quarter of 2019, the new PV administration did not know whether it could be released, and the industry is still waiting. It makes the company's preparations for those "winds" like a gamble.
Judging from the policy trends revealed earlier, the household projects will have special subsidy funds, and there is no need to obtain subsidy indicators through bidding. Therefore, the household use sector has shown signs of rushing in the near future. However, the policy has not been officially released, and the special subsidy funds for household projects may also become a bubble. The current pre-emptive preparations such as grabbing the roof and smashing the land may also be a futile. Despite this, household projects will still be the "sweet" this year, especially in areas with local subsidies.
For other common projects, the yields of these projects may not be as high as expected due to the need to obtain subsidy indicators through bidding. Coupled with the limited amount of subsidies, the market demand generated by this part of the project will not be very large, and its rate of return is also doubtful.
On the other hand, the Notice on Actively Promoting Work Related to Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation with Unsubsidized Affordable Internet Access （hereinafter referred to as "Peer-Price Internet Policy"） has been issued for more than two months, but the provinces and municipalities that have initiated the application for parity online projects have There are only a few, unsubsidized projects that seem to be in the "satisfaction". At present, the implementation of the parity Internet policy has not met the industry expectations. When will the unsubsidized project be launched? No one knows, so the demand that can be brought about by unsubsidized projects is beginning to be questionable.
On the one hand, subsidized project policies are too slow to be released; on the other hand, the policy of unsubsidized projects has been implemented, and the domestic PV market seems to be fierce in 2019.
The author believes that although the current domestic PV market is slightly depressed, it is largely due to the wait-and-see period on the eve of the "policy release". Once the New Deal is officially released and implemented, it will drive the normal operation of the entire PV industry, and the unsubsidized project will officially welcome its own development.
Is there any hope in the photovoltaic market in 2019? This still depends on the effect of subsidizing the new deal. First, after the release of the New Deal, enterprises can be deployed according to the New Deal, and the PV market will be angry. Second, the yields of subsidized projects and unsubsidized projects cannot be too different, and a certain balance must be achieved, so that after the release of the New Deal Enterprises can use the subsidized projects as a reference to evaluate the rate of return of unsubsidized projects, and then actively begin to lay out unsubsidized projects. Therefore, whether it is a subsidized project or a non-subsidized project, it will be directly or indirectly affected by the subsidy New Deal.
Is there any hope in the photovoltaic market in 2019? Yes, as long as the subsidy policy can truly meet the market and solve the problem. In addition, from the time of policy release, the domestic market may not be able to perform in the first half of 2019, and the market will be active mainly in the second half of the year.